A month of the 2022 Major League Baseball season is already in the rearview mirror. To this point, offensive production is at a historic low. Thanks to cooler spring temperatures, the leaguewide humidor policy, and a de-juiced baseball, offensive production has been hard to come by around the league early on.
That should change as the weather warms up. Still, we’ll see whether the league decides to back down on its decision to crack down on home runs. If you’ve been betting on baseball totals, here’s hoping you’ve been hammering the under. 24 of the league’s 30 teams have hit the under in at least 50 percent of their games so far this season.
World Series Betting Sites are well aware of the fact that we shouldn’t draw too many firm conclusions after just a month of play. There is still an awfully long way to go between now and the 2022 World Series this fall.
Injuries, trades, and all sorts of factors will cause World Series odds to shift considerably in the coming months. However, there has already been a bit of movement between the beginning of April and now.
Which teams have seen their odds change the most over the first month of the campaign?
The updated 2022 World Series odds, as of May 4th, are listed below:
MLB Odds to Win World Series
Los Angeles Dodgers
Toronto Blue Jays
New York Yankees
New York Mets
San Diego Padres
Chicago White Sox
Tampa Bay Rays
San Francisco Giants
Los Angeles Angels
St. Louis Cardinals
Boston Red Sox
Kansas City Royals
One Month of Baseball
New York Yankees (+1400 -> +750)
Through one month, the New York Yankees’ 2022 World Series odds have been nearly halved. It probably has something to do with the fact that the Yanks have looked absolutely dominant thus far. The Bronx Bombers are currently 18-6 on the young season, which puts them 3.5 games in front of Toronto and four ahead of Tampa Bay for the AL East lead.
Winning this stacked division won’t be easy, but the Yanks have made it look that way to this point.
New York’s plus-50 run differential is very easily the best mark in the American League. No other AL side is better than plus-29 in that department. The Yankees have put a league-best 118 runs on the board, and they lead the majors in WAR (5.4), home runs (34), and slugging percentage (.428). In a league in which most teams are struggling to score, the Yankees are scoring.
A no-doubter for @TheJudge44. 😱 pic.twitter.com/kvWMTqh7RI
— MLB (@MLB) May 4, 2022
That’s not all, of course. New York’s pitching staff is second to the Dodgers in ERA (2.62), even with $300 million man Gerrit Cole having gotten off to a subpar start. The Yankees opened the season with the seventh-best World Series odds of any team.
They’re now tied with Toronto for second in that department at +700.
Health will be a key for this team. Injuries have thwarted the Yankees over the past couple of seasons, but they’ve been able to avoid calamity on that front to this point. If they can keep their players on the field, the talent on this team is unquestioned.
2022 World Series Opening Odds
Parity is still king in Major League Baseball. No team has won the World Series in consecutive years since the New York Yankees won three straight between 1998 and 2000. In fact, the Boston Red Sox (four), San Francisco Giants (three), and St. Louis Cardinals (tw0) are the only teams to have won multiple titles since the Yankees’ three-peat.
Last year, the Atlanta Braves won it all in rather unexpected fashion. The Braves were south of the .500 mark at the trade deadline and had just lost their best player, Ronald Acuña Jr., to a season-ending ACL tear. However, GM Alex Anthopoulos retooled Atlanta’s outfield on the fly, and the team surged to a 36-20 finish over the final two months of the season. The Braves then upset the Brewers, Dodgers, and Astros en route to their first World Series title in nearly 30 years.
In spite of their remarkable run, oddsmakers aren’t too keen on the Braves’ chances of repeating the feat in 2022. Most MLB betting sites have Atlanta in the +1000 range to win it all again this season. While that does put the reigning champs among the favorites in MLB World Series odds, the Braves are not getting quite as much respect as you may expect for a reigning title winner.
How do all 30 teams stack up when it comes to their chances of winning the World Series in 2022?
MLB Odds to Win World Series
Los Angeles Dodgers:
San Francisco Giants:
Los Angeles Angels:
St. Louis Cardinals:
Kansas City Royals:
Los Angeles Dodgers (+475)
At this point, we can just expect the Dodgers to open every season as the betting favorites to win it all. LA tops the MLB World Series odds at +475 for the second straight campaign. The Dodgers weren’t too active this offseason, but you can argue they’re already better than they were last year when all they did was win 106 regular-season games.
In comes Freddie Freeman, out goes Corey Seager. Dave Roberts will have to rebuild his bullpen after the departures of Kenley Jansen, Joe Kelly, and Corey Knebel, but Los Angeles is incredibly deep on the pitching front. Clayton Kershaw returned on a one-year deal, while the rotation will be headlined by Walker Buehler and Julio Urias. Whether Trevor Bauer returns at all remains to be seen, while Dustin May is due back at some point after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
Replacing a workhorse of Max Scherzer’s caliber is no easy task, but if any team can do it without missing a beat, it’s this one. Mookie Betts and Cody Bellinger are due for bounce-back campaigns, while Kershaw and Max Muncy will return after missing the postseason because of injuries. Los Angeles was upset by Atlanta in the NLCS, but there is no reason to believe they won’t be back again this fall.
The Dodgers’ World Series odds 2022 speak for themselves. At +475, there is still some meat on the bone with what is clearly the most talented roster of them all.
Toronto Blue Jays (+800)
If any single team won the offseason, it was probably the Toronto Blue Jays. The Jays missed out on postseason play a season ago despite reaching 90 wins for the first time since 2015. Toronto fortified the rotation with the additions of Kevin Gausman and Yusei Kikuchi, while Matt Chapman was acquired in a blockbuster trade with Oakland to man the hot corner.
By locking Matt Chapman in for the next two seasons, the Blue Jays get cost certainty. Meanwhile, Chapman gets security.
This deal doesn’t impact his timeline to free agency. Still slated to hit the open market after the 2023 season. https://t.co/lqKX9W9WSU
— Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith) March 22, 2022
Robbie Ray’s departure is essentially offset by the arrival of Gausman. The right-hander quietly finished 14-6 with a 2.81 ERA in San Francisco a season ago. There suddenly isn’t a glaring weakness in the Blue Jays’ rotation, which was certainly not the case a year ago at this time.
Fangraphs’ odds give the Blue Jays an 89 percent chance to make the playoffs.
Which should be easier this year with the expanded postseason field. That includes about a 44 percent chance of winning the top-heavy AL East, with 12.2 percent chances of winning the World Series. Only the Dodgers (16.2 percent) have more favorable MLB World Series odds.
New York Mets (+900)
Much like the Blue Jays, this is rarefied air for the Mets. New York hasn’t made a playoff appearance since their last World Series trip in 2015. New owner Steve Cohen has proven he’s willing to spend whatever it takes to get New York back into the World Series picture. This offseason alone, the Mets added Max Scherzer, Starling Marte, Eduardo Escobar, Chris Bassitt, and Mark Canha to the mix.
Despite their favorable +900 MLB World Series odds, Fangraphs’ projections say the Mets are still underdogs to Atlanta in their own division. New York has a solid 74 percent chance of qualifying for a National League playoff spot, but their 27.5 percent chances to win the division pale in comparison to the Braves’ 49 percent mark.
Of course, these are just projections, which don’t take into account variables such as injuries and other unexpected factors that may pop up over the course of the 162-game marathon of a season.
On paper, the Mets don’t have any apparent weaknesses.
The rotation is strong at the top, and New York has enough young arms up coming up through the system to give Buck Showalter decent cover in case some of his regulars go down hurt.
Atlanta Braves (+1200)
Based on the aforementioned odds, the Braves are clearly going overlooked and undervalued by oddsmakers. Fangraphs has the Braves with a 49 percent chance to win the NL East title for the fifth season in a row. The defending World Series champions have a safe 86 percent chance to make the playoffs with a 10.5 percent chance of repeating as league winners.
The departure of Freddie Freeman was a shocking development:
But the Braves likely won’t miss him too much after replacing him with the younger and comparable Matt Olson. Postseason heroes Joc Pederson and Jorge Soler also left for greener pastures, but the return of Acuña softens the blow. Atlanta also re-signed Eddie Rosario, who won NLCS MVP honors after single-handedly dominating the Dodgers in that series.
Slugger Marcell Ozuna, who missed most of last season after a domestic violence arrest, is also expected to return and man the team’s new designated hitter spot on an everyday basis.
Mark it down as a double for Eddie Rosario. pic.twitter.com/nefISRm9IT
— Baseball GIFs (@gifs_baseball) March 25, 2022
I wouldn’t say rotation depth is an area of strength for the Braves, but reinforcements should be on the way. Huascar Ynoa is back after missing the postseason, while Mike Soroka should return shortly after tearing his Achilles twice.
Charlie Morton, Max Fried, and Ian Anderson is still a strong top-three in the rotation. The Braves’ +1200 MLB World Series odds give them a 7.7 percent chance to win it all.
Fangraphs’ odds that say Atlanta has a more favorable 10 percent chance to win the title. As a result, this is a discrepancy worth using to your advantage.
Chicago White Sox (+1200)
It’s a little surprising to see the White Sox’ with a 65 percent chance to win the American League Central title for the second consecutive year. The AL Central looks like one of the weakest divisions in baseball. Chicago won it by a whopping 13 games last season, and a similar winning margin again this year wouldn’t be a huge shock.
The Sox have a 77 percent chance to make the AL playoffs with 5.8 percent MLB World Series 2022 odds. As you can see, there’s a slight discrepancy between the Fangraphs odds and the betting odds. The White Sox’ +1200 MLB World Series odds imply a 7.7 percent chance of winning it all. While the Braves are undervalued, the ChiSox may be a little overrated by oddsmakers. Still, you can’t argue with the talent.
Chicago has one of the most exciting young teams in the majors, with arguably the best bullpen in the sport. As we’ve seen in recent years, having a dominant bullpen is often a formula for success in October. On the flip side, the Astros’ mighty offense made Tony La Russa’s gang of hard-throwing relievers look rather mortal last fall.
Houston Astros (+1400)
Nobody wants to bet on the Astros. Houston has become the league’s villain in light of the 2017 trashcan-banging scandal. However, Fangraphs’ 2022 odds suggest MLB betting sites are lower on the Astros than they probably should be.
Houston’s +1400 MLB odds to win the World Series give them about a 6.7 percent chance. Fangraphs’ projections are much more bullish on Dusty Baker’s squad. Despite losing Carlos Correa in free agency, Fangraphs still gives Houston a better than 70 percent chance to win the American League West. The ‘Stros are also at 84 percent to make the playoffs, with a better than eight percent chance to win the World Series title. This team is still stacked, even without Correa. Justin Verlander is back after missing all of last year, and he’ll spearhead an otherwise young, up-and-coming rotation.
The Astros believe the drop-off from Correa to Jeremy Peña may not be as massive as some might think, either. Kyle Tucker, Michael Brantley, Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, and Alex Bregman still headline an incredibly dangerous lineup.
Tampa Bay Rays (+1600)
I get it. The Tampa Bay Rays are not particularly sexy. Nobody goes to their games, and they play in an outdated, cavernous dome. Watching a Rays home game on TV almost feels like taking a trip back to 1993.
However, the ballpark is the only aspect of the Rays that isn’t cutting edge. Kevin Cash’s harebrained managerial style rubs some old-school types the wrong way, but the team gets results.
Tampa Bay finished with the best record in the American League last year, and they made a laughingstock of an otherwise incredibly tough AL East.
Shane McClanahan, 96mph ? pic.twitter.com/KhqFoPUWmP
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 23, 2022
The Blue Jays, Yankees, and Red Sox were all more active this winter than the Rays were, which has some wondering whether the other teams have lapped the Rays in the field. Based on last year’s performance, however, I don’t see much reason to doubt this team’s chances of making another World Series run.
Could Tampa Bay be going a little overrated by oddsmakers?
Perhaps. Fangraphs only gives the Rays about a three percent chance to win it all, while Tampa Bay’s +1600 MLB World Series odds imply about a five percent chance. Still, this team has done an awful lot of winning over the past couple of seasons. They need not go overlooked.
San Francisco Giants (+2000)
Speaking of respect, the Giants still aren’t getting any. San Francisco won an MLB-high 107 games last year, yet most observers wondered all year long when the bottom was going to fall out. The Giants wound up losing to the rival Dodgers in the NLDS, but they proved they were no fluke.
Will losing Buster Posey and Kris Bryant hurt the offense?
Without a doubt. However, Gabe Kapler proved last year he’s capable of making the most with the roster he has at his disposal. Pitching shouldn’t be an issue for this team, either. Carlos Rodon, who may have won the AL Cy Young Award last season if healthy, was arguably the value signing of the winter. Between Rodon, Logan Webb, Alex Cobb, Alex Wood, and Anthony DeSclafani, there isn’t a glaring weak spot in San Francisco’s starting rotation.
Fangraphs has the Giants projected to take a massive step back, with a projection just south of 85 wins. That’ll put them third in the NL West behind the Dodgers and Padres. San Francisco only has a 1.7 percent chance to win it all, which is far worse than their +2000 MLB World Series odds suggest (4.76 percent).
The Giants defied all of the naysaying projection systems last year, however.
Who’s to say they can’t do it again in 2022?
Philadelphia Phillies (+2200)
The Phillies will do a lot of mashing in 2022. All they did this winter was add Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos to a lineup that already featured reigning National League MVP Bryce Harper.
Philadelphia finished a disappointing 82-80 last year, but that was still good for second place in the NL East. 82 wins likely won’t cut it in the East this time around, with the Mets and Braves looking like legitimate World Series contenders.
Oddsmakers are overlooking the Phillies, however. In addition to a deep and scary lineup, the Phillies also boast an excellent 1-2 punch of Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola atop the rotation.
Nick Castellanos is inevitable pic.twitter.com/m1eZdqjQp5
— Pardon My Take (@PardonMyTake) March 27, 2022
Can the Phillies defend? That, of course, remains to be seen. Signing Schwarber and Castellanos means at least one subpar defender will be manning a corner outfield spot at all times.
Harper is one of the best hitters in the sport, but defense isn’t his cup of tea, either.
I’d be all over the Phillies’ current +2200 MLB World Series odds. Don’t be surprised if Philadelphia gives Atlanta and New York a serious run atop the division this summer.
Los Angeles Angels (+2200)
The Angels are one of those teams that makes their way onto the “World Series sleepers” lists every year. They have Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout. So, they should be good, right? Well, this isn’t the NBA. Having superstars is nice, but isn’t a panacea in this game.
The Angels have tried desperately to fill out the roster around their two generational talents. Anthony Rendon hasn’t been healthy since his arrival two years ago, but the Halos hope he’ll return to form in ’22. Pitching is key, however. The Angels took a flier on Noah Syndergaard, while youngsters like Patrick Sandoval, Jose Suarez, and Michael Lorenzen will man the back end of the rotation. There is a lot of volatility with that rotation behind Ohtani. If Joe Maddon can keep his rotation relatively intact, perhaps this is the year the Angels finally capitalize on all of that star-level talent. The lineup should produce, but LAA’s ability to keep their opponents off the scoreboard is the real question mark.
In spite of their faults, the Angels do still have the second-best Fangraphs chances of winning the AL West (16.8 percent). LAA is also at 38.9 percent to grab a playoff spot, with slight 1.6 percent chances to win the World Series. The Phillies are a far better value at the same +2200 MLB World Series odds, but I do think the Halos can finally make some real strides this season.
Seattle Mariners (+3300)
Speaking of AL West teams looking to finally take the next step, how about the Seattle Mariners? Seattle stayed in the Wild Card hunt all year long in 2021, only to fall short in the season’s final weekend. Seattle still hasn’t made the playoffs since 2001, which is the longest postseason drought in the sport.
It isn’t for a lack of trying.
Jerry DiPoto is aggressively trying to build a winner here. This offseason alone, the M’s picked up Robbie Ray, Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez, and Adam Frazier. Jarred Kelenic and Kyle Lewis are a couple of bright young talents, while Mitch Haniger was one of the most underrated hitters in the game a season ago.
.@jarredkelenic locked in. #SeaUsRise pic.twitter.com/Kd5CggTz3n
— Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) March 26, 2022
The bullpen doesn’t look great, but there is enough talent on this roster to expect Seattle to make another postseason push. The Mariners’ +3300 MLB World Series 2022 odds imply about a three percent chance to win it all. Per Fangraphs, however, Seattle has a tiny 0.9 percent chance to win a championship for the first time.
Best World Series 2022 Bets
While the Los Angeles Dodgers; MLB World Series odds 2022 are far better than everybody else’s, baseball is an inherently unpredictable game.
A lot can happen over the course of 162 regular-season games, while the playoffs are often a separate entity entirely. Could we have reasonably expected the Braves, after winning the fewest games of any division winner last year, to upend the Dodgers and Astros on their way to a World Series title? No, probably not.
So, while the Dodgers are the best bet to win it all again this year, they’re hardly the only team with a chance. Here’s how I’ll rank my favorite bets to win the World Series ahead of the 2022 campaign.
Los Angeles Dodgers:
San Francisco Giants:
Los Angeles Angels: