Craig’s Betting Blog – 2YO Horse Racing Tips : 1:45 Lingfield Racing Tips (3rd May)

Craig's Betting Blog - 2YO Horse Racing Tips : 1:45 Lingfield Racing Tips (3rd May)

A fascinating race. 

Just the six two-year-olds to consider. Five with racecourse experience, one making its fourth start. A restricted Notice Stakes over this 5f 6y. This turning course is likely to favour horses with experience and natural pace. 

These banded races are often lowly affairs. 

On first inspection (maybe last, too) these look a motley crew. A mix of trainers and owners, including Her Majesty The Queen. 

Lucy Lightfoot is one of those horses you both love and hate to bet. A small bay filly and daughter of Fast Company out of a winning Irish-race mare who achieved a highest official rating of 99. 

Lucy Lightfoot was purchased by the trainer at the yearling sales for £20,000. This February foal made her debut at Newmarket in a competitive heat. The form has been franked and there will be more winners to come. Whether this filly is the next to taste victory is very dependent on her temperament. She clearly has ability but has been far too keen on both starts to date and that sets the alarm bells ringing. She’s like one of those dragster type toys you rev up and when you let go they storm off, sparks shooting from the exhaust (or tail in this vision) and as the dust settles you try to work out whether Miss Lightfoot has passed the line first or still running as you wipe sand from your eyes. If you love a little bit of danger when betting this could be your girl. To be fair, this spedster didn’t have much go right when a beaten favourite at Brighton. An awkward start saw her out the back and making up for lost time. She was pulling with wild abandon and loomed up after being short of room, running on but running on fumes. She’s a character. In truth, she wasn’t disgraced some two lengths behind Tom Clover’s Jumbeau (a bigger, stronger-looking filly) finishing fourth. A flared nostril or three from second spot. Will she be any calmer today? That’s the question! I wouldn’t hold my breath. However, even considering her excitable nature, she may have a chance of winning on this third start. This turning course may just help her settle a fraction. Although saying that, I can see her trying to lead all the way. Crossing from a wide draw. There’s little doubt she has the pace to lead. I wouldn’t be surprised if she isn’t clear of the field if they let her really go for it. The fear is that she will tire in the closing stages and will need to hang on for grim death. 

Your classic love and hate bet. 

I’m pretty sure connections fancied their chances at Brighton. Their downfall, bumping into a decent filly and things not quite panning out. 

If betting, I would bet straight win (because this will be all or nothing) and if using the exchanges, I’d out up my stakes (at least) around even money (if not shorter) in case she looks like a certainty and the wheels fall off. 

She’s a live wire Miss Lucy Lightfoot. 

All that work for just one horse. 

Five to go. 

George Boughey fields Rock Girl and Estehwadh. The stable revealed a better horse with Malrescia who ran at Newmarket on the 29th April. However, most of the juveniles this season have run horrendously. I imagine they have been used to measure the string. 

Rock Girl hails from an owner who is making waves this season with umpteen winners and talented horses aplenty. Amo Racing Limited after flying high with a mix of both cheap and expensive two-year-old purchases. 

This daughter of Profitable out of an unraced mare cost £23,000. She was fancied to go well on debut over course and distance but showed signs of inexperience, a touch outpaced, before running on to take second a good few lengths behind Richard Hughes’ Knebworth, who looks a very good buy and a strong-looking colt. It was no poor effort finishing second to that potentially smart newcomer. She should be wiser for that effort and capable of going close. It wouldn’t be a surprise to find she is outpaced by the likes of Lucy Lightfoot but could well run of with gusto. 

Estehwadh was outpaced on debut and he will need to be much sharper on this second start to challenge the speed merchants. 

Dazzling Gem is making her fourth start this season, racing in the second colours of Amo Racing Limited. This daughter of Dandy Man has been relatively fancied on all starts but not had the best of luck. She hung baldly on her second start at Kempton when behind Gay Kelleway’s pocket rocket Ocean Cloud. And tried her damnedest at Brighton when leading for most, tiring in the closing stages to finish fifth. She was one position behind Lucy Lightfoot. Dazzling Gem has a decent draw here and is another horse who may well lead. This turning course could suit although you are left with the feeling she will be collared by someone in that last half furlong. 

Archie Watson isn’t having the best of things this early season with his two-year-olds although Eddie’s Boy tasted victory the other day (25th April). It’s difficult to assess the merit of The Full Bronte who has the hood applied for the first time today. This son of Brazen Beau ran in a stiff race on debut at Nottingham when behind Dare To Hope, while the second horse, Rocket Rodney, flew home at Goodwood on his second start last Friday (29th April). Although the Nottingham contest was a banded race (C and D) it was a fair contest. True Statesman ran well second start and Hugo Palmer’s Glorious Angel is well thought of. The Full Bronte may have been a touch keen that day. It wasn’t easy to assess what exactly he was doing (even though I reviewed the race about 20 times). He tired in the closing stages to finish seventh, beaten five-and-a-half lengths. Archie Watson features decent stats with fancied horses on their second start and it isn’t beyond the realms to see this colt show more today in a race that could well be weaker than not. 

Just to add to the melee we have an early bird from Harry & Roger Charlton. Garner, a home bred, represents Her Majesty The Queen. This bay colt is a son of Recorder out of a thrice-run mare who didn’t show a great deal. 

Ryan Moore takes the ride. 

It’s very unusual to see one of Chartlon’s two-year-olds out this time of the year (most successful debutantes are seen later season (predominantly October). Whether this is a good sign or not is a matter of opinion. The stable hasn’t seen many debut winners in the month of May (going back a lot of years). Although a good number of these runners went on to prove successful on their second start. I would assess the chance of this colt by the betting. The vast majority of debut winners are strongly fancied and I would suspect if this February foal is going to win he will start favourite. Conversely, if he is weak in the betting, I’d take a watching brief. 

Summary: An intriguing if not difficult race to assess. As always, I rely on the betting to help answer a few questions so being dogmatic at the time of writing (21:05) leaves me slightly lacking. I am hopeful Lucy Lightfoot will run a race. But whether I would want to bet is all about the price and definitely putting my stake up in running (1/1) as my get out of jail card. Even saying that. you/me/the world is pushing our luck by considering betting on a temperamental horse (perhaps that is a bit harsh but she’s a keen sort unless she’s a reformed character). If betting, I would go for a straight win. It will either be a smart victory or a ball of flames. To be fair, you may do yourself a favour simply watching. You will get some value from that. Rock Girl may pick up the pieces if William’s filly fails to shine. Garner would be a real hope if starting favourite. While The Full Bronte may have a fighting chance if fancied in the betting. 

Author: Jason Coote 

Author: Lucas Carlson