PFL 6: 2022 Odds and Predictions

PFL 6: 2022 Odds and Predictions

PFL Week 6

The PFL 6: 2022 Odds are in, and we’ve made our top predictions for all ten fights, including our prop bet predictions for each bout.  

How to Watch and Bet on PFL 6: 2022 Odds 

Tune in July 1st, 2022 at 6:00 PM ET to catch the full card on ESPN+. Our PFL 6: 2022 betting odds are from Bovada and Betonline.ag, two of the top UFC betting sites. Click any of our place bet now buttons to be directed to the appropriate site for the bet you chose, as some sites aren’t supporting the full card. 

PFL 6: 2022 Regular Season Predictions

Kayla Harrison -7500 vs Kaitlin Young +1400: Harrison by Submission +140
Rory MacDonald -310 vs Sadibou Sy +225: Over 1.5 Rounds -310
Ray Cooper III -700 vs Brett Cooper +450: Fight Goes Distance, No -360
Magomed Mogomedkerimov -550 vs Joao Zeferino +395: Mogomedkerimov Money Line -550
Larissa Pacheco -460 vs Genah Fabian +325: Fight Goes to Decision, No -180 
J. Al-Silawi +188 vs Magomed Umalatov -250: Umalatov Money Line -250
Nikolay Aleksakhin +155 vs Carlos Leal -180: Scrapped Bout
Marina Mokhnatkina -210 vs Abby Monetes +160: Mokhnatkina Money Line -210
Martina Jindrova -300 vs Zamzagul Fayzallanova +230: Under 2.5 Rounds +145
Olena Kolesnyk -205 vs Vanessa Melo +155: Melo Money Line  +155

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

PFL 6: 2022 Regular Season Odds 

There are several heavily lopsided fights and some surprising close favorites. Seeing Rory MacDonald below -350 for PFL is strange. We feel the same for the 11-0 Magomed Umalatov at a meager -250. First, the reigning champ is up against the seasoned Young. 

Kayla Harrison -7500 vs Kaitlin Young +1400

Young has been the underdog in two of her three PFL showings, but has lost both fights via decision. She’s lost to Gina Carano and has been active since 2007. Boasting wins over Miesha Tate and Reina Miura, Young had occasional moments of brilliance. 

Another PFL W for Kayla Harrison pic.twitter.com/ykjlKc3kBY

— Spinnin Backfist (@SpinninBackfist) October 28, 2021

Harrison Odds and Streak

Kayla has been a massive favorite in nearly every showing with odds, -1500 to -5000 in all showings since 2019. She’s 13-0, and switched to MMA after winning her second Olympic Gold in Judo. 

Harrison vs Young PFL 6: 2022 Betting Odds 

Fighter 
Kayla Harrison 
Kaitlin Young 

Money Line
-7500
+1400

Points or Decision
+400
+2000

TKO
+100
+2000

Submission
+140
+3000

Harrison has five of each TKO and submission, so your prop bet needs to reflect Young’s defensive skills. Young is a decent striker with majority knockout wins. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Harrison focusing on the ground game early and often, putting Young to the canvas quickly. Bet the Submission prop bet if you’re looking for a decent Harrison payout, but avoid the Young props and stick with the money line if you see an upset. . 

Harrison vs Young Over/Under Props 

Bet
Over, Yes Odds
Under, No Odds 

1.5 Rounds
+165
-240

2.5 Rounds 
+310
-525

Will the Fight Go the Distance 
+340
-585

Young went the distance with Budd, so why can’t she do the same with Harrison? Budd has seen four decisions straight and isn’t much of  a submission specialist, landing only one her entire career. Harrison’s submission work is the real reason you’re seeing high payouts for a decision. 

Tale of the Tape for Harrison vs Young 

Fighter
Kayla Harrison 
Kaitlin ‘The Striking Viking’  Young 

Age
31
36

Height
5’8’’
5’9’’

Reach
66’’
69’’

Record
13-0
12-12-1

Submissions, TKO 
5, 5
0, 8

Harrison will have to get inside the range of Young for the clinch. This is a problem she’s faced before and handled well.

Young has been around MMA since before Harrison’s Olympic Judo run, but she still hasn’t established a grappling game that can resist high level takedowns.

 

Past PFL Performances 

Kayla has a 100% takedown ratio for her two 2022 season bouts, sixteen in total. It’s clear that Kaitlin is going down, but unfortunately PFL doesn’t provide control stats for fights. Young landed 69% of her strikes form the Outerzone, basically at a distance. This fight hinges on Harrison’s ability to close the gap. 

Prediction: Kayla Harrison Money Line -7500

This massive favorite shows a meager payout that can be parlayed with other confident bets through the weekend. The Harrison by Submission is a close runner up for us, offering $140 per $100 wagered. 
PLACE YOUR BETS NOW! 

Rory MacDonald -310 vs Sadibou Sy +225

MacDonald is 2-3 over his last five, dropping decisions as the favorite to Gleison Tibau and Ray Cooper at -1000 and -134. He lost to Lima at +150.
Sy has been the underdog for eight fights running, ranging from +140 to +750. In that time, he’s gone 3-3-2. Sy is climbing the ranks, and his knockout striking is a repeated equalizer. 

MacDonald vs Sy PFL 6: 2022 Betting Odds 

Fighter 
Rory MacDonald 
Sadibou Sy 

Money Line
-310
+225

Points or Decision
+120
+500

TKO
+500
+450

Submission
+325
+2500

Draw
+6600
+6600

Sy is a TKO focused fighter with a Swedish Muay Thai background. His multiple draws come from how different judges score his power. Expect Rory to utilize range and body lock work, similar to the Nick Diaz fight. 

Macdonald vs Sy Over/Under Props 

Bet
Over, Yes Odds
Under, No Odds 

1.5 Rounds
-310
+205

2.5 Rounds 
-170
+130

Will the Fight Go the Distance 
-140
+100

In MacDonald’s last seven fights, we’ve seen five decisions. Rory has been knocked out four times in his entire career, and the majority of his sixteen finishes are prior to 2017. Sy has seen seven decisions over his last ten fights. Losing twice by TKO and once by submission, Sy has developed good survivability at the highest levels. 

Tale of the Tape for MacDonald vs Sy 

Fighter
Rory ‘Red King’ MacDonald 
Sadibou Sy 

Age
32
35

Height
6’0’’
6’3’’

Reach
76’’ 
80’’

Record
23-8-1 
10-6-2

Submissions, TKO 
9, 7
0, 6 

Sy is the larger athlete by far. MacDonald has competed at much higher levels of competition, but his recent performances leave plenty to be desired. Notice Rory’s nine submission wins. I hope to see his ground work against the less experienced Sadibou. 

Rory MacDonald dominates his way to a 6 point finish!#2022PFL3 LIVE on ESPN+
🌎 https://t.co/jPNvomkWj8 pic.twitter.com/GJGlDPA1OU

— PFL (@PFLMMA) May 7, 2022

Past PFL Performances 

One of the core pieces of fight tape we were looking at is the fight with Ray Cooper III. MacDonald was crushed by Cooper, in an upset that shocked us. Sy went to a draw with Cooper, and we believe he won the fight. Ray Cooper is a rising PFL star, and Sy easily won two rounds. 

Prediction: Over 1.5 Rounds -310

Both fighters went to decision with Cooper, and both fighters are slowing down as they age. Rory says he’s coming to finish everyone, but he doesn’t fight that way. Sy’s underdeveloped ground work makes him tough to bet on, and I see Rory winning a close decision. 

Ray Cooper III -700 vs Brett Cooper +450

Cooper was +350 in his underdog loss to MacDonald and +350 in his loss to Berkhamov. He lost his last dive showings as the underdog, Cooper lost a decision to Carlos Leal in May that ended a six fight winning streak. Cooper was a -435 over Leal, and -160 in his draw with Sadibou Sy. 

Cooper III vs Cooper PFL 6: 2022 Betting Odds 

Fighter 
Ray Cooper III
Brett Cooper 

Money Line
-700
+450

Points or Decision
+365
+1000

TKO
+104
+600

Submission
+275
+2500

Ray has finished four of his last seven opponents, showing improved submission work with an arm triangle of Jason Ponet. Brent has been knocked out three times in his last ten, and submitted only twice. If you find a Ray Cooper III inside the distance prop bet, put it on your ticket. 

Cooper III vs Cooper Over/Under Props 

Bet
Over, Yes Odds
Under, No Odds 

1.5 Rounds
+120
-160

2.5 Rounds 
+210
-320

Will the Fight Go the Distance 
+230
-360

Brent hasn’t seen a decision, win or lose, in five fights. He’s seen eight decisions since 2011, a 25 fight span. Ray Cooper’s increasingly knockout centered style adds to the -360 No decision prop bet. 

Tale of the Tape for Ray Cooper III vs Brent Cooper 

Fighter
Ray ‘Bradda Boy’ Cooper III
Brett ‘Fudoshin’ Cooper 

Age
29
34

Height
5’7’’
5’11’’

Reach
70’’
74’’

Record
24-8-1
28-16

Submissions, TKO 
7, 15
2, 18

Fudoshin has more overall knockouts but double the number of career losses. He’s the larger fighter, but Ray’s switch stance style helps him to move in quickly on taller opponents. 

RAY COOPER III. WOW. pic.twitter.com/Aus64EcveZ

— Spinnin Backfist (@SpinninBackfist) October 28, 2021

Past PFL Performances 

Ray Cooper III had a takedown focused style against Leal, landing only 4 of 20. We hope to see him bring back his more aggressive style against Brent. Brent Cooper has heavy hands, and his last win over Tyler Hill ended in just 2:32 of round 1. 

Prediction: Fight Goes the Distance, No -360

Ray Cooper will be looking to make a statement after his May loss. Brett tends to leave it out on the table, with surprising knockout power but not much else. This fight should end as early as round win, and the no decision prop pays winnings of $27.78 per $100 wagered. 
PLACE YOUR BETS NOW! 

Magomed Mogomedkerimov -550 vs Joao Zeferino +395 

Magomed has been the favorite in all fights since his first run in with Ray Cooper IIII. He won by Guillotine in round two. He lost his last bout with Cooper at -175, ending an eleven fight winning streak. 
Joao is a submission fighter coming off a loss as the favorite. He’s been the favorite in every fight since 2016, with a +170 win over Jason High. 

Mogomedkerimov vs Zeferino PFL 6: 2022 Betting Odds 

Fighter 
Magomed Mogomedkerimov
Joao Zeferino 

Money Line
-550
+395

Points or Decision
-125
+800

TKO
+325
+1300

Submission
+500
+900

Magomedkerimov scored three of his last four wins by decision. Zeferino is a submission specialist, but has only scored two in his last seven, with four decisions as well. Magomed by points a quality method of victory prop bet for any ticket. 

Magomed Magomedkerimov put Curtis Millender to sleep with a first-round Ezekiel choke 😬 #2021PFL5 pic.twitter.com/xDxtGXjBAT

— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) June 17, 2021

Over/Under Props 

Bet
Over, Yes Odds
Under, No Odds 

1.5 Rounds
-340
+220

2.5 Rounds 
-190
+145

Will the Fight Go the Distance 
-160
+120

The Over 1.5 rounds prop bet aligns with all of Zeferino’s fights for the last four years. Magomed has two first round submission finishes in his last ten fights, indicating the Over 1.5 rounds is a good bet. Neither fighter is likely to win the opening round submission, but late finishes are on the table.  

Tale of the Tape for Mogomedkerimov vs Zeferino 

Fighter
Magomed Mogomedkerimov
Joao ‘The Brazilian Samurai’ Zeferino 

Age
32
36

Height
6’1’’
5’9’’

Reach
73’’
69’’

Record
29-6
26-10

Submissions, TKO 
9, 10
17, 4

Mogomedkerimov is the larger man, with a four year youth advantage. Zeferino has more finishes overall, but that has more to do with the level of competition he faced early in his career. 

Prediction: Mogomedkerimov Money Line -550

Mogomedkerimov’s submission skill will stifle the majority of Joao’s game.

Expect a long decision with Magomed playing the outside, hunting more knockouts with his newfound striking power on the feet, and scrambling for guillotines on Zeferino’s takedown attempts.

 
This bet pays out $18.18 per $100 wagered. 
PLACE YOUR BETS NOW! 

Larissa Pacheco -460 vs Genah Fabian +325

Pacheco has been the underdog three times in her last ten. Twice she lost to Kayla Harrison, but she upset Sarah Kaufman in 2019 as a +180. Fabian is coming off a +220 upset of Julia Budd after a +1800 loss to Harrison. 

Pacheco vs Fabian PFL 6: 2022 Betting Odds 

Fighter 
Larissa Pacheco 
Genah Fabian 

Money Line
-460
+325

Points or Decision
+225
+575

TKO
+180
+700

Submission
+275
+2500

Fabian’s win over Budd leads me to believe her +575 decision prop is heavily undervalued. I see Pacheco as good, but mostly untested. Pacheco does have three TKO’s in a row, and that momentum makes her TKO prop an easy bet for Pacheco fans. 

Pacheco vs Fabian Over/Under Props 

Bet
Over, Yes Odds
Under, No Odds 

1.5 Rounds
-165
+125

Will the Fight Go the Distance 
+140
-180

Pacheco is a knockout fighter, Fabian is a knockout fighter. Pacheco has seen much higher levels of competition and gone unfinished, but was knocked out by Chiasson and Randamie. The under or no decision prop looks like easy money. PFL 6: 2022 odds support the stats; Fabian has seen only one decision. 

Tale of the Tape for Pacheco vs Fabian  

Fighter
Larissa Pacheco 
Genah ‘Fabioso’ Fabian 

Age
27
32

Height
5’6’’
6’0’’

Reach
69’’
74’’ 

Record
16-4
5-2

Submissions, TKO 
8, 7
0, 3

Fabian is far larger, and is one of the largest framed women in the division. Pacheo has nearly triple her experience level and total career finishes. 

No Mercy 🙏

6 Points for Larissa Pacheco pic.twitter.com/8gUickBMBl

— PFL (@PFLMMA) May 7, 2022

Past PFL Performances 

Both fighters lost to Kayla Harrison, and both put up a serious fight. Fabian seems to have more natural punching power, while Pacheco is the more technical striker and grappler. 

Prediction: Fight Goes to Decision, No Prop -180

Fabian is getting better, quickly. Her size advantage is even greater than Randamie’s, a girl who destroyed Pacheco in TUF. Expect a back and forth battle with someone hitting the canvas. The prop pays winnings of $55.56 per $100 wagerd. 
PLACE YOUR BETS NOW! 

J. Al-Silawi +188 vs Magomed Umalatov -250

The undefeated Umalatove faces last year’s champion. Neither fighter has been the underdog in their last five bouts. 

Al-Silawi vs Umalatov PFL 6: 2022 Betting Odds 

Fighter 
Jarrah Hussein Al-Silawi 
Magomed Umalatov

Money Line
+188
-250

Points or Decision
+425
+150

TKO
+660
+215

Submission
+1200
+800

Magomed has knocked out seven of his last eight opponents, and opened up his pro career with two submission wins. Al-Silawi is on a five fight winning streak that includes five TKOs. He’s only been knocked out once in his MMA career. Be careful betting the PFL 6: 2022 betting odds on props for this fight. It’s tough to predict what gameplan either man will bring.  

Al-Silawi vs Umalatov Over/Under Props 

Bet
Over, Yes Odds
Under, No Odds 

1.5 Rounds
-250
+170

2.5 Rounds 
-140
EVEN

Will the Fight Go the Distance 
-115
-125

Both fighters have recently gone to decision with high level opponents. Despite their multiple finishing, I think the best Over under bet is the over 1.5 rounds. Competing at their own level, both men struggle to finish early. 

2021 PFL Welterweight champion Ray Cooper III kicks off his 2022 season this coming Friday against undefeated former Eagle FC champion Magomed Umalatov.

📺🇬🇧 – #PFL3 live on Channel 4 in the UK! #ViolentMoney #VMTV #PFL #MMA pic.twitter.com/CHqOxwzuEZ

— Violent Money TV (@VM_TV_) May 1, 2022

Tale of the Tape for Al-Silawi vs Umalatov 

Fighter
‘Jordinian Lion’ Jarrah Hussein Al-Silawi 
‘Prince’ Magomed Umalatov

Age
30
NA

Height
5’11’’
6’1’’

Reach
72’’
75’’ 

Record
18-3
11-0

Losses via Submissions, TKO 
0, 1
Undefeated

Prince is an Eagles MMA fighter, working closely with many of the undefeated Khabib team mates in a gym that may have the worlds best pro winning percentage. 

Past PFL Performances 

Magomed’s last fight went to a decision over a quality grappler. It’s surprising to see him struggle to get shots off against anyone, but he needs fighters to move forward. Al-Silawi is giving up range and height, something he didn’t need to worry about in his decision over Tibau. 

Prediction: Umalatov Money Line -250

This undefeated fighter is destined for bigger and better things, and will win the PFL 2022 playoffs with relative ease. Bet Umalatov for winnings of $40 per $100 wagerd. 
PLACE YOUR BETS NOW! 

Nikolay Aleksakhin +155 vs Carlos Leal -180 Scrapped

Leal was set to fight Gleison Tibau, but Nikolay was a last minute replacement. The favorite, Carlos Leal was the favorite in all bouts except his fight with Cooper, a +390 upset. His losses were all early in his career, 2014 and prior. This bout has been scrapped at the last minute, but expect Leal to show up as the favorite and win against a big underdog in any last second replacements. 
PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

Marina Mokhnatkina -210 vs Abby Montes +160

Mokhnatkina upset Amanda Bell at +108, going 2-3 over her last five. She lost to Harding and Jojua as the favorite in 2019. Montes is only 3-1 as a pro, putting down Claressa Shields with superior grappling in 2021. She lost her last fight via split decision. 

Mokhnatkina vs Montes PFL 6: 2022 Betting Odds 

Fighter 
Marina Mokhnatkina
Abigail Montes 

Money Line
-210
+160

Points or Decision
+104
+250

TKO
+1200
+900

Submission
+350
+1400

Montes will need the takedown to do much of anything to Marina. Mokhnatkina has four submission finishes and no TKOs on her record. PFL 6:2022 betting odds reflect Marina’s lack of TKO wins, and arguably, should offer more for that prop since she’s never even scored a knockdown. 

Mokhnatkina vs Montes Over/Under Props 

Bet
Over, Yes Odds
Under, No Odds 

2.5 Rounds 
-280
+185

Will the Fight Go the Distance 
-240
+165

At the highest levels, Mokhnatkina has seen five straight decisions. Abby has seen three decisions in four fights. 

Tale of the Tape for Mokhnatkina vs Montes

Fighter
Marina Mokhnatkina
Abigail ‘Brave’ Montes 

Age
34
22

Height
5’6’’
5’6’’

Reach
66’’
67’’

Record
6-3
3-1

Submissions, TKO 
4, 0
0, 1

Abigail is young, and we can expect her to get better quickly. She’s a talented natural athlete and as she ages, the holes in her striking technique should close up. 

Claressa Shields loses her second MMA bout. Abby Montes able to take her down and control her for two of the three rounds. #PFLChampionship pic.twitter.com/910MICSK93

— Kevin Thang (@Skip2MyJays) October 28, 2021

Past PFL Performances 

Abigail’s decision win over Shields was a huge upset, but it’s clear that this ground focused fighter relies on size and note wrestling technique to do her best work. 

Prediction: Marina Mokhnatkina Money Line -210

Marina is the superior decision fighter with better fundamental grappling skill. Montes is going to struggle to get the takedown, and I’m betting she loses two rounds to one. ​​ Mokhnatkina pays winnings of $47.62 per $100 wagered. 
PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

Martina Jindrova -300 vs Zamzagul Fayzallanova +230

Fayzallanova lost her first bout with betting odds as a +800 to Pacheco in May. Jindrova is 2-2 over her last four, but has been the favorite in all betting odds, including losses to Tamires Vidal and Sobek at -150 to -180. 

Jindrova vs Fayzallanova PFL 6: 2022 Betting Odds 

Fighter 
Martina Jindrova 
Zamzagul Fayzallanova

Money Line
-300
+230

Points or Decision
+100
+375

TKO
+315
+1200

Submission
+1200
+650

Jindrova has seen two decision wins for PFL. Zamzagul has one TKO loss and one decision loss, finishing most of her career wins via submission. 

Jindrova vs Fayzallanova Over/Under Props 

Bet
Over, Yes Odds
Under, No Odds 

2.5 Rounds 
-190
+145

Will the Fight Go the Distance 
-170
+130

PFL 6:2022 odds see a decision, mainly influenced by Jindrova’s PFL appearances ending in a decision twice this year. Zamzagul’s knockout loss and aggressive style make the Under attractive, with a high payout and underrated probability. It’s not something I would put on a parlay ticket. 

Tale of the Tape for Jindrova vs Fayzallanova

Fighter
Martina Jindrova 
Zamzagul ‘Bopay’ Fayzallanova

Age
31
30

Height
5’8’’
5’7’’

Reach
68’’
67’’

Record
5-2
7-2

Submissions, TKO 
1, 1
3, 2

Jindrova is slightly larger, but Fayzallanova has more overall finishes and experience. Jindrova’s time as a muay thai kickboxer may come into play if Bopay can’t secure her takedowns.

Prediction: Under 2.5 Rounds +145

This fight is a collision course, both in style and vulnerability. Jindrova has little BJJ experience and Zamzagul can take advantage of that if she doesn’t get knocked out first. 
The Under pays $145 in winnings per $100 wagered. 
PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

Olena Kolesnyk -205 vs Vanessa Melo +155

Melo is a former UFC athlete that went 1-3. She’s currently 1-4 over her last four fights, each as the underdog including her win over Sarah Moras. Kolesnyk is 1-4 with multiple Invicta and PFL losses. She’s also been the underdog for each bout, including her win over Abby Montes at +250. 

Kolesnyk vs Melo PFL 6: 2022 Betting Odds 

Fighter 
Olena Kolesnyk
Vanessa Melo 

Money Line
-190
+151

Points or Decision
-141
+250

TKO
+600
+1800

Submission
+1400
+800

Olena has been submitted twice, and Melo has two career submission wins. Both were over four years ago, and the majority of her mid range wins were decisions. Olena’s only win over quality opponents is Montes, a split decision win. The Olena by points may be the only prop worth considering. 

Kolesnyk vs Melo Over/Under Props 

Bet
Over, Yes Odds
Under, No Odds 

2.5 Rounds 
-470
+285

Will the Fight Go the Distance 
-310
+205

Kolesnyk has seen only two decisions over her last five fights and these are the only fights worth considering for her. Melo’s work in Future and SFT included all decision wins, including her decision win over Sarah moras in UFC. The Over is a good choice, with neither fighter showing top level finishing mechanics. 

Tale of the Tape for Kolesnyk vs Melo

Fighter
Olena Kolesnyk
Vanessa ‘Miss Simpatia’ Melo 

Age
32
34

Height
5’9’’
5’5’’

Reach
68’’
64’’ 

Record
6-4, 1 NC
11-9

Submissions, TKO 
1, 4
2, 0

Melo is small for the weight class, giving up reach and height. She fought at featherweight in the UFC, but complained about her ability to make weight. 

Prediction: Vanessa Melo Money Line +151

This former UFC athlete has multiple wins over mid range competitors while Olena has never actually finished someone with more than one win. Expect Melo to win via decision, and consider the Melo Decision prop for a better return. 
PLACE YOUR BETS NOW! 

Author: Lucas Carlson