UFC Fight Night 206 Holm vs Vieira Prelim Card Odds and Predictions

UFC Fight Night 206 Holm vs Vieira Prelim Card Odds and Predictions

UFC Preliminary Matches May 21

We’ve organized our top betting picks for the six prelim bouts at UFC Fight Night 206. You can see the UFC Main Card picks here.
The UFC Fight Night 206 odds are brought to you by Bovada, our top MMA betting site, and the Prelims air May 21st, 2021 starting at 4:10 PM ET. 

Top UFC Fight Night 206 Prelim Predictions

Parlay Pick: Joseph Holmes Money Line -200
Almeida Money Line -595
Medic Money Line +110
Morales Money Line at +185
Chase Hooper Money Line +150
Hughes vs Reed ‘No Decision’ Prop +225


UFC Fight Night 206 Prelim Odds: Joseph Holmes vs Alen Amedovski

Holmes is now 1-1 in the UFC, both times as the favorite at -455 and -133. He has other betting odds on record, always as the favorite since 2020. Holmes was an undefeated amateuer that hasn’t lost outside the UFC since his pro debut. 
Alen is 0-2 in the UFC, losing as the favorite to John Phillips and a +200 underdog against Krzysztof Jotko. Holmes has been far more active since turning pro, and Alen has never lost outside of the UFC. 

Tale of the Tape for Holmes vs Amedovski 

Joseph ‘UglyMan Joe’ Holmes 
Alen Amedovski 



80’’ Orthodox 
74’’ Orthodox 


Submissions/TKO in UFC

Fighter Training Camp
Allstars Training Center, Various

Holmes is the much larger, younger fighter. Alen is small for a middleweight, and Holmes is one of the biggest middleweights on the roster. Picket beat Holmes with a narrow decision win and still had trouble outboxing Holmes on the feet despite matching him in reach. Alen will struggle finding the chin of Holmes as a fighter with a six inch reach disadvantage. Both fighters teams are moderate, producing some high level fighters. 

UFC Fight Night 206 Prelim Betting Odds for Holmes vs Amedovski 


Joseph Holmes Money Line

Alen Amedovski Money Line

Over 1.5 Rounds

Under 2.5 Rounds

Holmes was a stronger favorite against Shonte Barnes in his DWCS appearance. These are the third lowest favorite odds in his career, after his LFA win over Ryan Leininger and his UFC loss to Picket. Amedovski was only ever the underdog in his loss to Jotko, including his two fight Bellator run. 

UFC Fight Night 206 Prelim Prop Bets: Holmes vs Amedovski

Both fighters have had one decision, though Amedovski was knocked out by Jotko in round 1. There isn’t enough data on these two in high level fights to make a calculated decision on the UFC Fight Night 206 odds for over/under props. 

MMA Breakdown for Holmes vs Aedovski

Holmes is a lanky grappler, and will look to engage Alen against the fence early and often. At the UFC level, Alen has a .52 significant strikes landed per minute in his first two fights. This may be the worst offensive accuracy in UFC history if he keeps it up. 

Joe Holmes is now a UFC fighter.
(More than likely 😅)#FuryFC53 pic.twitter.com/Dq6lvnbZZk

— Alex Behunin (@AlexBehunin) November 15, 2021

Joe has real power, and you can see him here against a Jhonoven Pati, a fighter with a similar build to Alen. I don’t see how Alen is going to win this one. Joseph Holmes -200 money line pays out $50 per $100 wagered and is a great parlay pick. 

UFC Fight Night 206 Prelim Odds: Jailton Almeida vs Parker Porter

Almeida won his DWCS debut followed by a UFC finish in February, landing 30 unanswered strikes on Danilo Marques at -370. Jailton beat Nasrudinov as a +168 underdog. Porter is 3-1 in the UFC, losing only to Chris Daukaus at +110. His three fight winning streak includes two upset wins over Chase Sherman and Josh Parisian. 

Tale of the Tape for Almeida vs Porter 

Jailton ‘Malhadinho’ Almeida 
Parker Porter 



79’’ Orthodox 
75’’ Orthodox 


Submissions/TKO in UFC

Fighter Training Camp
LG System 
Thorton’s MMA 

Parker is beat in every category, from UFC finishes, total losses, age and height. He has Almeida beat in weight, 265 in his last bout. Almeida is moving up to heavyweight from 205 for the majority of his career. Almeida will fight in both divisions, and said he’s better as a heavyweight, coming in close to 240. 

UFC Fight Night 206 Prelim Betting Odds for Almeida vs Porter 


Almeida Money Line

Porter Money Line

Over 1.5 Rounds

Betting lines think Almeida will blast right through Porter. Parker has only one fight via decision, though his loss to Daukaus was in the first round. I see Porter surviving round 1 if he’s able to utilize the clinch, but it’s not something I’d bet on. The Over prop supports the majority of Parker’s wins but nearly none of Almeida’s through his whole career. 

MMA Breakdown for Almeida vs Porter

Aleida is a special kind of athlete. He took an average .72 strikes per minute in his first two showings totalling nearly ten minutes of octagon time, racking up a 7.28 takedown ratio per fifteen minutes. Look at the finishing ground strikes from Jailton. 

Welcome to the UFC, Jailton Almeida! 👏#UFCVegas47 pic.twitter.com/1XzxNH4E0T

— UFC on BT Sport (@btsportufc) February 5, 2022

Porter is the opposite. A slow, methodical heavyweight that ends up in vicious slugfests with his opponent’s. He’s been hit with a total 323 significant strikes across four fights, all in two years. From a style standpoint, Porter doesn’t utilize control time in a way that’s going to bring him the victory over a smaller, more athletic fighter like Almeida. 

👊 @Parker_Porter turning up the pace! #UFCVegas34 pic.twitter.com/EmBpRn4eZ1

— UFC (@ufc) August 22, 2021

Expect a fight that’s fun to watch. I think Porter will put up a fight and try to move Almeida against the cage. These two will meet in the middle and we will quickly see how much Porter’s weight matters against Almeida’s style of cage grappling. He should have a thirty to forty pound weight advantage on fight day, as he cuts down to make the 265 weight limit. 

UFC FIght Night 206 Prelim Prediction 

We’re taking the easy road and betting the Almeida money line at -595. Almeida pays out $16.81 per $100 wagered. Because of the move up win weight class, I’d classify this as a value bet and not a parlay pick. 

UFC Fight Night 206 Prelim Odds: Omar Morales vs Uros Medic

Morales has been the favorite in his last four appearances, going 2-2 overall. He upset Harvey Park at +200 in a DWCS debut, and is now 4-2 for the UFC. Uros Medic is coming off his first career loss to Jalin Turner as a -110 favorite. He has been the favorite in all other fight appearances, and this is his first ever showing as an underdog. 

Tale of the Tape for Medic vs Morales 

Uros ‘The Doctor’ Medic 
Omar ‘Venezuelan Fighter’ Morales 



71’’ Southpaw
73’’ Orthodox 


Submissions/TKO in UFC

Fighter Training Camp
Kings MMA 
Sanford MMA 

Medic is the younger, taller fighter. He has a 66% UFC finishing rate, compared to the 15% from Marales. Both fighters are at high level camps that are consistently producing top talent. Medic’s loss to Turner came after a striking clinic, which is a wonder considering Uros was hit only twice in the two knockout wins prior. 

UFC Fight Night 206 Prelim Betting Odds for Medic vs Morales 


Medic Money Line

Morales Money Line

Medic is the underdog after only one loss. The UFC can be unforgiving, and Morales has gone to decision with strikers like Giga Chikadze. Uros will have to prove he’s cut from a different cloth to get the finish over Morales in his usual fashion. 

MMA Breakdown for Medic vs Morales

Medic has strong accuracy and timing that comes from a traditional martial arts background. He’s the kind of fighter that has aggression and not enough pro kickboxing experience to stop him from utilizing it well. He believes he can finish Omar and anyone else. 


🇷🇸 Uros Medic made a strong case to sign!

Watch the final fight now on E+ pic.twitter.com/LuTvwT5DIC

— UFC (@ufc) August 5, 2020

Key UFC Stats


Takedown Accuracy/Defense
100%, 63%

Strikes Absorbed

Morales has never taken a failed takedown, that’s three across six fights. He struggled to find the angle on GIga, but his fight with Dong Hyun Ma showed his willingness to beat the athlete with patience. 

UFC FIght Night 206 Prelim Prediction for Medic vs Morales

We’re taking the Underdog bet, Medic money line at +115. He’s still a nearly undefeated knockout artist, and Morales has lost every step up in competition he’s faced. Of his defeated UFC opponents only one has a winning UFC record. Bet Medic for double your money in our underdog pick of the prelims!

UFC Fight Night 206 Prelim Odds: Jonathan Martinez vs Vince Morales 

Martinez has flown under the UFC radar, racking up a 6-3 UFC record. Vince Morales is now 3-4 on a two fight UFC winning streak that includes the Louis Smolka knockout. Both Fighters have knockout power, and both fighters can be knocked out. 

UFC Fight Night 206 Prelim Betting Odds for Martinez vs Morales


Martinez Money Line

Morales Money Line 

Morales by TKO

We see another upset. Morales has more power overall. He was unlucky in meeting both Song Yadong and Chris Gutierrez in his early UFC run, but he’s coming into his own when fighting other kickboxing centered fighters. 
Martinez was knocked out by Grant who has been knocked down four times in his UFC career. We see another undercard upset at +185. Your UFC Fight Night 206 odds payout $185 per $100 wager for this Morales Money LIne. 

UFC Fight Night 206 Prelim Odds: Chase Hooper vs Felipe Colares 

Hooper returns off another loss, putting him at 3-2 in the UFC, still one of the youngest fighters at only 22. Felipe Colares is a 2-3 fighter with five decisions on his record. We have no doubt that Chase will hunt the submission or ground finish. 

UFC Fight Night 206 Prelim Betting Odds for Hooper vs Colares


Hooper Money Line

Colares Money Line 

Hooper by TKO

Oddsmakers and bettors lost their faith in Hooper’s ability to fight a decent athlete. Hooper’s power is in question despite having more knockouts in the UFC than Colares. This is confusing, and the only explanation is that people just don’t like Hooper and his presentation as ‘the kid’ in the UFC. We’re ready to take the easy money, betting our third underdog pick of the prelim card bet Chase Hooper at +150 for a $150 return per $100 wagered on a fighter with more finishes, more UFC wins, and better strikes landed and absorbed per minute. 

UFC Fight Night 206 Prelim Odds: Elise Reed vs Sam Hughes 

Elise Reed is now 1-1 in the UFC, coming off a close split decision win over Cory McKenna. 
Sam Hughes is 1-3 in the UFC, coming off her first win under similar circumstances. 

UFC Fight Night 206 Prelim Betting Odds for Reed vs Hughes 


Reed Money Line

Hughes Money Line 

Fight Goes the Distance 

Fight Does not Go the Distance

Hughes has a slight favorite status despite having more UFC losses but some very close bouts. Reed’s TKO loss to Sijara Eubanks make’s us skeptical of the ‘Goes the Distance prop’ and its safety. Eubanks has no other UFC finishes on record. Despite both fighters struggling to finish UFC fighters, they’ve scored three finishes each outside of the UFC. 
This is a tough fight to predict between two evenly matched fighters. We’re going with the ‘no decision’ prop bet at +225. Both fighters know their contracts are on the line. Because of that, they’ll scrap hard for a win and finish in their next showing. 

Author: Lucas Carlson